2025 has got off to a scary start. Wildfires have ravaged much of Greater Los Angeles and we are facing an era of deepening polarization, escalating crises, and growing disinformation. This comes with an inevitable sense of despair to those working tirelessly to shift the momentum toward a future in which the biosphere can thrive. And yet, as ‘stubborn optimists’, we remain inspired by action.
In our work, we witness the spirit and unity throughout our community, partner networks, and audiences. This brings with it a powerful sense of hope. Cities, regions, businesses, and grassroots movements are stepping up, showing what is possible when cynical defeatism fails to take root. The needle can be moved when bold ideas are met with impassioned, collaborative action.
The challenges we face are undeniably stark
Global temperatures breached the 1.5°C threshold last year, pushing the planet closer to dangerous tipping points. Our systems are under strain, with six out of nine planetary boundaries now crossed—a threshold defined by the Stockholm Resilience Centre as critical to maintaining Earth’s stability.
Meanwhile, biodiversity continues to decline at an alarming rate, as documented in the World Wildlife Fund’s 2024 Living Planet Report. Economic instability and worsening climate disasters compound the problem, eroding the resilience of our societies and ecosystems. The impacts will be particularly harsh for nations most vulnerable to rising sea levels and extreme weather. Yet many governments remain gridlocked, failing to provide the support and funding these nations desperately need. 2025 marks a critical juncture. With just five years to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43%, it is vital to understand the forces shaping the path ahead.
At Metabolic, we have identified key trends that will shape the world in 2025 and influence the focus of our work. These forces will test the resilience of our systems and create openings for transformative change. Understanding and addressing them is critical as we strive to create a regenerative and equitable future.
Trends to watch
- Advancing place-based transformation
We believe that deeply rooted local efforts are essential to transforming our global economic system and adapting to the impacts of climate change. Across the globe, communities are showing incredible energy in developing place-based initiatives that integrate economic, natural, and societal systems. However, many of these efforts remain disconnected, and those just beginning their journey often lack the resources to scale their impact.
These initiatives address the interconnected natural, social, and economic systems that shape communities—linking local governance, material flows, energy use, and cultural dynamics into cohesive frameworks for action.
This year, innovative forms of finance and systemic capital deployment must be prioritized to advance these efforts. Our work centered on Place-Based Transition Funds is key to this, providing structured approaches to guide stakeholders in fostering sustainable, resilient, and regenerative communities. - Decentralized power
A retreat from climate leadership at the federal level in the U.S. will likely spur transformative action at the state and city levels. Cities worldwide are already demonstrating their capacity to lead, often transcending national boundaries through networks like C40 Cities, ICLEI, and the Global Covenant of Mayors. These collaborative efforts showcase the power of localized solutions that form around regional hubs. - Nature + climate: symbiotic action needed
The climate crisis and biodiversity loss are two sides of the same coin, yet efforts to address them are often siloed. Deforestation and industrial land clearance for animal farming and extractive practices not only drive biodiversity loss but also exacerbate climate instability. This destructive feedback loop demands urgent, symbiotic action.
In 2025, policy and corporate initiatives must prioritize solutions that recognize and address these interconnected systems. Regenerative agriculture and the circular economy must become standard practice—transforming industrial priorities from extractive to regenerative. Only by working with nature, rather than against it, can we create resilient systems that benefit both people and the planet. - Scaling influence in the EU
Critics argue that the EU’s regulatory model lags in competitiveness in areas like Quantum Chips and AI. Yet conventional metrics fail to capture the bigger picture. While growing inequality in the U.S. is leaving millions without housing or safety nets, the EU is fostering social stability and attracting those who seek equitable systems and greater well-being standards.
As the EU continues to lead in circular economy legislation and climate policy, it can provide a model for systemic governance that balances social, economic, and environmental priorities. Through the Systems Transformation Hub, we are collaborating with influential partners to align EU policy with systemic transformation. These efforts tackle governance challenges with bold solutions that prioritize long-term prosperity and social stability. - Reclaiming the narrative around shared prosperity
The environmental narrative is being dominated by climate skeptics including the countries and industries that depend on the existing extractive economy. This is particularly visible through the exploding number of lobbyists joining the COPs. Globally, polarizing political dynamics are driving a significant public pullback on environmental topics, diversity, and social justice. This shift is leading to reduced commitments and funding streams, causing substantial disruption throughout our sector.
As we celebrate the 10 years since the Paris Agreement we must shift the focus to the solutions that we know to be successful in reducing carbon emissions. We must stop treating climate and nature as a ‘crisis’. What is needed is not a temporary war room. Long-term transformations are needed in our economic system. We must frame our work, in climate and biodiversity, as an opportunity to create healthier societies, where the economy serves all living things. This means disambiguating the narrative from extreme or polarizing positions and rooting it in outcomes that resonate across divides.
By broadening its reach and grounding it in shared values, the narrative can unite diverse voices and inspire the systemic change our world urgently needs.
Stay resilient
As we look ahead we know that 2025 will not be easy. But we remain resolute in our belief that transformation is possible. History shows us that the convergence of small, courageous efforts can create seismic shifts. The vast majority want a change and recognize that there are clear limits to endless growth at the expense of our shared habitat.
A future in which our systems work for the betterment of humankind, the biosphere, and its beautiful diversity is possible. We must all remain ardently stuck to this belief to make it so.
